Forecasting: Purchase Based on Historical Data

Modified on: 2018-09-05 17:47:24 -0400


Overview

In order to keep your customers satisfied you need to provide them with the product they want when they want it. Forecasting can be compared to driving a car while looking in the rear-view mirror.  The past gives a few clues about the future, but not enough to stop you from driving off a cliff.  


Benefits

Forecasting will help predict product demand so that enough product is available to satisfy customer orders.  Having a reliable way of forecasting demand will mean that excess product is not ordered and therefore less waste.


Prerequisite 

Orders should not be forecasted until there is enough history in the system. Typically four weeks of orders with shift-specific waste entered for each day. The system will forecast without waste entered, but it will not be accurate. If the waste audits are open (green) or missing, they will need to be entered and closed.


Navigation

Location Console > Orders > Template


Edit the order template:

  • Edit a product

  • Enable Forecasting: when checked, production will factor in previous orders and wastes to determine starting order.  Supplier Rules will be applied to these values.
  • Waste Factor (%) and/or Waste Minimum (each)
    • The additional amount that you intend to waste.  If both are entered the lesser value will be applied.

Save Changes 


Use the Apply to Open Orders at the bottom of the template to update order quantities.


Tips:


  • Products with forecasting enabled will be indicated by .
  •  You can forecast none, some, or all products. 

  • Bulk editing can be used to select all products that will have the same waste standard.

  • In order for the forecasted order quantity to change with increased demand, you should enter a waste minimum of at least 1.
  • Reviewing the Waste Statistics report will be helpful in determining your demand.
  • Exclude orders that are out of the ordinary from forecasting.  

 


Factors that could impact forecasting when enabled:

  • Supplier Rules - rounding and direction
  • Waste not being entered 
  • Weather
  • Events - enterprise and/or local
  • Seasonal population changes




 

















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